The Computer Revolution : An Economic Perspective

historical analysis, supplemented with interviews of small and large service-sector companies.To set the stage, Daniel Sichel reviews the debates over the role of computers and summarizes the essential facts about computer use, with a particular emphasis on software. Going beyond basic facts, Sichel describes an economic framework for assessing the aggregate economic impact of computers in recent decades and for looking ahead at this impact in the future. Quantitative estimates from this framework, along with supporting historical and interview evidence, place limits on the contribution of computers to the overall economy. When compared to the size of the slowdown in productivity growth in the early 1970s, the overall impact of computers appears relatively modest, in part because the share of computers in the nations capital stock is surprisingly small. Looking ahead, Sichel also raises questions as to whether computers are likely to solve the nations productivity woes in the future. [Publisher's text]

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